30/04/2015

Crazy day, stocks overacting to any bump in the road and not respecting levels.

Check list is helping a lot at keeping me out of trades I like but are low probability and have little chance of working



Pre trade list

Looked at lots of stocks that opened flat or low but no decent setups so only small size and few trades

Profit today and happy for any upside. A few more days and will increase size so any up day is a good day

IWM

This index move fast and over reacts to events.

Entered on support and held till it stalled. I sold half the position and then put in a stop at break even and just left it to do what it wanted

OCR

This was up on good 1stQ yesterday and a take over rumor This caused a big upside and with a lower open and high today and no conformation of the take over its a good fundamental for a breakdown.

It stated to work and then held. Will look at this again tomorrow as each day will wear it down some more

BRCM

Held well at support and level on longer term chart

Entered and when it failed to move cut the position.

Got out with fees so happy

29/04/2015

Jumpy day full of opportunities and happy to watch others trade them.

I made 2 trades and ended up with profit and the plan is to keep trading with small size until I get a run of 6 of 10 days in profit and a success rate of 60% in profitable trades. At that point I will increase avg size of each trade.
I will still take advantage of any high conviction setups that can be traded with a tight stop until them but respect a stop loss of max $50.00 on any one trade

I looked at a lot of stocks today with running constant scans during the trading hours. Only a few make it to the check list and this again saved me from over trading. When I am comfortable with the format of this list I will put together a checklist for entering trades as well.


PL

HOT

Looked to short this as there was no real driver for the increased price and it seemed to be just hype. It did hold up and I made two trades. I cut the first one when it did not move as quick as I wanted only to watch it drop a little.

I missed the next opportunity and then took the one after. It was looking to strong so exited for a small profit 

KBR

A really good trade with a nice entry. Price was in a tight band on the 5 minute chart and it moved easily off this. I took half off when I left the screens and cut the rest soon after returning. There was a nice higher hold and a good move into the close.

 I will watch this one tomorrow as it is very strong 

28/04/2015

PL 

I needed to stop overtrading and impluse trading so have created a pre trade check list. Its a work in progress and only takes a few minutes to fill out for each stock. So far it has stopped me trading in a few stocks that I would have normally entered and this has been good.

I use a rating system and give 1 point for each positive item and then look to the charts to see if the price, volume and levels are setting up for an entry.

For shorts I will use a -1 for each strong point 

It stopped me trading F today as it was weak in most timeframes and not much to drive today apart from loyal investors.

AAPL was an impluse trade on the open and I should not have taken it at the level I entered. The expected level or price that I should have found support and did was around 40 cents below and it stopped there and then moved up nicely. 

The insight for the day is that I need to trade levels supported by price and volume not get excited and see good in every micro pause in price 

COH

Good trade, set up on the five minute chart at the open high and volume dropped away. There was a clean move down. I got out way to early and missed about double on what I got as I was annoyed at my AAPL trade and wanted to chip away at getting the money back.

MRK
This stalled at the mid pre market range and spent 10 minutes in a tight range. Volume picked up and the spread opened with bids chasing this up so entered. Got out when it stalled at a level and after the first red bar

NOV
Looking for a short and it didnt work. It did test the high and closed off this level so will be looking to short this tomorrow it shows weakness

 AAPL

Got excited and traded this at the wrong level. Needed to wait for it to test a prior low
Lesson for next time

27/04/2015

Down day, using a pre-trade check list to control random trades and refining this to make a useable process so will take a few days. It did stop me from taking a couple of trades today that I would normally have traded so a good start.

market started strong but faded to lows and no upside. Tomorrow will be an interesting day and have no idea what it will so.

I will be looking for good long and short trades for tomorrow

AKRX

looked to short this but no go. News was all negative and it started out ok but did not fail from the lost of the day. The trade to take was to short the mid day move up.

Lesson, dont go long at the top of the range or go short at the bottom.

Wait for a break on volume and then the re-test

I tried two more shorts near the end of the session but cut them very quickly on volume changes on the tape 

JD 

Strong in principle but no go on the day.

3 trades in all but no move up 

BRCM

again looked strong and was setting up but failed to move off the bottom and was rangebound.

I cut this trade due to no movement 

21-23/04/2015

Missed a few days of posts

Been very frustrating with a string of small losses. The money is not a concern but the inability to get in sync with the market is and I need to change this
My thoughts are to make small improvements in how I approach trades and to pay more attention to trends and levels.
I dont have the skill or the bank account of the SMB professionals so its best to learn from them and copy only the trades that make sense to me

PL from the last 3 days

21/04/2015  Profit and a good day. Very few stocks and clear levels also small positions and still ended positive for the day

22/04/2015 No magic today, just could not get it together. Wanted trades to work and could only see good in them but that was a disconnect from reality

23/04/2015  Too many trades and not so well managed. I take a break mid morning and need to place take profit orders on stocks. This is best done with OCO on entry and I need to keep placing these and putting in sell orders at tested levels. 

One good set of trades at end of day in BRCM 

BRCM

This is how I love to trade and have not done one for a while.

Stock off earnings high from yesterday

Clear downtrend for most of day

Determined seller at 45.54 on tape. Orders refreshing to around twice bid levels and ticking down a cent or two as well. Selling pressure solid when these orders were flowing

Total of 3 trades 1, 2 & 3. 200, 100, 200 lots  Sold part @ 4 and closed @5 on first trade

Entered again @ 2 and sold position at 6

Seller started to keep a cap on upside so sold another 200 @ 3 and chased down with stops 2 cents above trade price. Sold at 07:55 just on close

I like trading this way and will look for more. There is potential to hold for bigger move on these or scalp 20 cent moves with some volume. Just needs decisive actions and hard stops above action on the tape 

20/04/2015

all indexes green for go today. Started out strong and just keep quietly running to the upside

Stuck to the plan today with small size and following two of SSpencers picks as well.

PL + $35.56
Very happy with this, its hard using small share size as transaction fees chop into but all the trades worked and still made profit overall on each one


Charts

RCL, traded long and followed SSpencer. It gapped down a lot and I would not trade this but the plan is to man up to it and learn something new so I did that. Spread was wide and random with 30 - 50 cents and small bunches of orders at each end fighting it out.
I settled on the second red bar along the bottom range and started to form up bids and offers behaving and then moved up nicely to resistance. I exited it there had also added when it started to move off the bottom and settle

LVS, no real reason for this move up, earnings due later in the week and it moved up to the bottom of a gap on the daily where it had failed before. I entered and just waited, closed out at VWAP and then entered again later on. The second trade made a tiny profit and was slightly negative after fees but happy with well managed trades.

this trade is a direct result of following Steve and looking for weakness at the of a range if there is no driver and clear levels

HAL, I dont like this stock as it does whatever it wants but again copied Steve.

 First short I missed the top as it moved fast so entered to low, took a tiny profit negated by fees but a good trade.

Second trade was at a higher level and after a failure to make the past day high.This broke even as as trade and was down the amount of the fees

Third trade later in the day there was a determined seller refreshing offers of around 3 -4 k and keeping the pressure on. Each time it skipped up 1 - 2 cents they would appear again and hold the up-move. Entered at market and got a fill at 1cent at the offer so happy with that and cut the trade on selling pressure drying up and bids increasing and holding

Really good trade 

last week ended up down a little but happy with progress on goals and habits that I need to change.

Goals for this coming week as follows,

No impulsive trades – there needs to be 3 key setups to trade along with market range bound or uptrend for long. Defined by SPY, IWM, QQQ and E minis

Long

Increased volume

Gap up for long

Support on 5 minute chart for level to be valid

Short

Break key levels

Slow death or event to drive it down

Exceptions

Steve S trades. Plan to enter his with 10 shares for purpose of leaning. Will try as many as possible and this is hard. I bailed on a trade last week where he shorted a strong up move as I just couldn’t bring myself to trade. It worked and it shows how much we are conditioned by what we think we know.

He makes money and I don’t so I need to copy trades till the patterns become my own

Stops – read an interesting interview in Hedge Fund Wizards and it talks about the point of pain for most people’s stops. This is the wrong place to put them and I have fallen into the habit of setting stops at a pain point and this is not the correct place as I get stopped out so often for a few cents.

Action

Stop level is to be worked out first based on past levels and then position size established to risk only what I want to lose if I am wrong.

I will keep at the other points as well, keeping stops in place, taking of part of positons at key levels, letting trades run.

If I see Conviction trades I will trade with a larger size 

16/04/2015

Futures and E-minis all down on open and flat with downside bias all session

Really struggling to get shorts today, seemed most of the world was selling and nothing to borrow so missed 3 trades that I wanted to try

PL Very small size as planned and no A-trades so nothing above 25 shares per trade

ADRO

last trade of the day and one of Williams.

His style is a little different than mine so plan to copy some of his setups with small size.

Closing play for pullback and did not work. Some will and some wont

Crazy spread and levels very hard to see. A few traders make good money on this type of trade so will keep at it

AXL

Short on this one.

It was not in play but is in a slow slide and no volume compared to the day before. Combined with a uncertain market I entered short and held for most of the day

Really happy with this trade

DDD

Traded later in the day and got this wrong

Failed to notice that it had been in a downtrend and was making lower highs

Stopped out

Not a good trade

SPWR

Strong today

Reason to Trade - in partnership with apple to supply solar panels

Made a low and tested this over 40 minutes so support at this level

Entered and held

I missed some high spots as I was away but thats just going to happen so not concerned yet.

Can manage that in time with limits orders to sell

This trade could have been a decent size so missed an opportunity here 

14/04/2015

Markets flat with some small upside after open

Plan has changed, I find it very hard to sit and do nothing and some trades are impulsive and this needs to change. I am also seeing what I want to see in stocks and trying to trade on this false view rather that trade the action at the time.

What is working,
Stops
Limits at key levels for entry
Scaling out
Holding longer
Stock selection

After watching Bruce Bower and his presentation for SMB I need to create a checklist of key actions to take leading into a trade. This has to be simple and able to be followed so I am consistent and manage trades  the same way each time.
I will buy his book when it comes out and hope this gives some guidelines on what is essential and work from there.

I am also going to copy Steve Spencer trades on SMB realtime as best I can, this will be with small size of 10 - 20 shares and for the purpose of learning and then making those setups mine. His trading is very good and his picks are entered by clear well defined levels.
There are a lot of trades that I would not make that he enters and this just tells me I need to change how I see the action so away we go.

at 10 shares a trade fees will make it hard to get profitable but this is accepted at the price of learning as the flip side of this is that it will also make for very small losses if that it the case and on a weekly basis if it was more winners that losers then the following week will see a small increase in size.

Trades that I feel I understand and are ones I would take I will trade with normal size



I started today..

PL  3 of 4 positive trades and a little down due to fees. A good start and happy with this

I am holding 2 open positions overnight.

CXO

entered long on stalling around the 121.80 level. It seemed to be holding so in a limit at the bottom to capture the extra few cents. I got out of this trade when it stalled after a couple of attempts at a new high.

UNH
Went short under VWAP and stock worked its way up so stopped out

QCOM

I was short this one and closed out when It looked as if it was holding. It was a good trade with a small profit and a break even

FAST
Momentum play on the open thanks to Steve. Entered with a wide stop and no stress due to a 10 share lot.  A great lesson and easy to pay attention with a small stake in the play

13/04/2015

Stuff up of a day, good intentions out the door for reasons I am still trying to work out.

No charts, loss of around $100.00 and had a few goes at one stock after it stopped me out in the morning. I missed putting in an OCO and in an instant it had fallen down and taken half of my days loss limit so I put the stop in and got whacked.
A couple of failed attempts and it was off to another small hiding in a couple more just for good measure.

Working on Plan B

Review week ending 10/04/2015

Looked at trades for the last 3 months

Overall no profit the last 3 months, not a massive draw down but just a small bleed of a few dollars a trade on average and something I want to change.

Stock selection

This has changed a few times and what works is obvious in hindsight. A stock that is either in demand or being beaten up.
Stocks are coming from SMB, SMB radar and TradeStation scans for Gap up and gap downs.

Need to keep at this and not get lazy - its ok not to trade if there are no trades.
I am looking to get around 3 patterns right before I move to more difficult stocks

Stops

A lot of trades are getting stopped out by less than 5 cents and to the cent as well.
These are trades that then turn around and work.

Need to place stops below critical levels and adjust position size to match


Time of day

I have slipped into the habit of being up for the  first hour to two hours and then getting up later for the last hour or two of the day

Most of the best trades are in the morning and it would be better to stay up till near mid-day US time
This will make it harder to get rested so might cut back on one day a week if I have to much on at work and find myself getting to tired.  Health first always

Trade management

I get out too early
I move stops up
I dont put in limit sells for when I am not at the screens

Need to fix all three issues

I have also removed all profit and loss information form the screens and find this a lot better. I am now focused on the trades and not the green and red numbers flashing in my face.

Overall very frustrated with trading but a lot of small issues that can be worked on and anyone of these  will make an improvements to my trading

10/04/2015

Solid market today, SPY sold off  a little pre-market and then spend the day in a quiet uptrend

Looking for stocks that were in sync with this trend

Good today
Followed the rules and had no major stuff ups so quite happy.
This did make trade selection a lot harder but that is just how it is

Bad today

Missed the open play in GE and after Steve SMB called it. So obvious and just made  tiny down move and then went quietly up. Just didn't pull the trigger

Missed on short later in the day, just hesitated at the perfect buy in and then did not want to chase


PL

EDU

this trade worked

entered on a false up move that failed below VWAP and held till it started to stall at a low.

The offers and bids started to level out and it looked a little stronger so moved stop to 2 cents above action and happy to be out for a good trade

This stock has been in an uptrend for a few months and so just a small roll down from the high

GE
The one I missed on the open. I took this on a move up and then seen Steve shorting it just after I went long so opted to follow his experience and cut the trade.
It did move up some move and started to muck around

HZNP

Went short on this at the 3rd test of a high and it kept going
Would take this again, it opened high and failed with no recovery above this open level. Not the best short as it was strong market today but worth a go

PIR

Just a failure. got in with a short position but before it clearly tested a level.

09/04/2015

Very jumpy day with futures opening down or flat and no trend for the morning

Trading
A total stuff up today, feel like I just went back a few years as I broke every rule in the first few trades.
I got in for no good reason
I chased
I got annoyed and tried to get back
I fought the trend of the stock and market


Last trade of the day I followed the rules
Stops in place
Stock in downtrend with no upside moves
Action on the tape to confirm entry
Out on time stop near close
Entered on limit near VWAP

Rules

Dont trade long any stock that opens below yesterdays close
Dont trade short any stock that opens above yesterdays close
Use hard stops and dont move them up
Take part profits
Dont add till levels are busted high or low
Needs to be a driver for a trade
Needs above avg volume
Wait for test of true levels not intermediate noise (Some stocks in normal behavior will drop only part way on the first move down for the day.  Stocks in play tend to get driven down from this mid-level and so are being played with by market makers of HFT and so will have a very good chance of a rebound)

This will do for a start



Daily PL

AAPL

Put in limit order in what appeared to be near the prior washout low on open

Did not put in Stop as an OCO as I put in the wrong order type

Got fill as it was plummeting down and way past mental stop level.

Stock hesitated so put in stop down further but did not check longer term levels so was out by around 20 cents

Got stopped out

BBBY
Fought trend, stock stalled just around day high and thought it would not drop from there so put in limit order long with stalled stock on bad earnings report with jumpy market and some weakness in all futures. What else did I get wrong, thats right I also chased it down with orders long just for fun.
A heap of errors for no good reason. Micro managing trades and not looking at big picture for some sense and waiting for conformation

PIR

Got this right 

Waited for conformation on tape of selling pressure on tape near VWAP

Held for a while till near session close

Took small profit

Trade never looked in doubt

Had stop in place

8/4/2015

All futures strong in after hours and opened positive
Overall a strong day and solid close


Bad today

Did not hold and cost a very good trade
Moved up a stop after a part exit of position and then stopped out at that exact price

Good today

Stock selection good
Entries good with limits and no chasing
Now four positive days, will look at doubling position sizes next week if this hold ups for one more day




HeatMap

PL

Trades

The one that got away

Entered MYL on limit after it stalled a little at a higher range.

I sold half on some testing of the range high on the 1 minute chart and that was ok but then on the next test sold the rest.

The stock was acting fine and overall the market was strong so there was no reason to sell but I did and missed a strong move up

AAPL

Strong stock on a solid day. Entered on washout and this was supported by the same action on the SPY, IWM and QQQ.

Good entry and took of half at the 0.50 level.

I moved stop up and then proceeded to get stopped out at the cent. Again broke a rule and should have left it in place and taken the risk.

HCN

Looking for a retrenchment to the open range low but never got there. The stock was not that weak and the market too strong. Moved stop down and very small loss. Happy with this trade as it went to plan and was well managed